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Waiting to Raise

Sometimes it is best to wait to the river before you show aggression.

This usually occurs when only a small number of poker players have taken the flop, and you flop a good but not great hand, but one that you still consider to be very strong for the situation.

Here’s an example, suppose you start with:

You raised before the flop, only the player in the big blind called, and the flop comes:

To your surprise he bets into you. (The reason this is surprising is that with this flop and only one opponent you would automatically bet.)

The best strategy is to frequently just call on the flop and fourth street, and then to raise on the river.

So why is this correct? “conventional wisdom” says to get the raise in right away, and the typical player will do exactly that.

But there are good reasons to play the poker starting hand as we have described.

First, you need to take into consideration what type of hand your opponent holds.

If he is bluffing, he might bet out again in the hope that you will fold.

If you raise, he will simply throw this hand away, and you will lose the opportunity to collect more bets from him.

If he is betting middle pair he will have five outs assuming he is not sharing your kicker.

By raising, he is likely to call your raise, but will frequently fold on the turn if he does not draw out.

Yet by only calling he is likely to bet again on the turn, and check and call on the river.

Since the pot is small, you shouldn’t object to his staying in with only five outs.

If he has an ace with a weaker kicker, he may easily bet all the way (with only three outs) and you will get him for an extra big bet on the river.

But by raising early he might get away from his hand after the flop or revert to a check and call poker strategy.

And finally, if he has a big hand, such as aces and tens or a set, the strategy of waiting to the river to raise will often save money since an earlier raise would probably result in his reraise.

This brings up An Important Point. Many players with a good hand, would be quick to reraise you on either the flop or the turn.

However, many of these same players will not reraise on the river because they will fear that you slowplayed a “monster.”

Similar advice applies when you feel very strongly that your opponent is on a flush draw.

Generally, in short-handed situations, it is very difficult to be sure that your opponent is merely on a draw.

But occasionally you will run into someone who is quick to bet their draws, but who will check-raise with their best hands (including top pair) and check and call with their mediocre hands.

If you know your opponent well, and you feel that this is the case, it is best to wait to fourth poker street to get the raise in.

The idea of raising immediately to get maximum value on the flop is wrong.

If the flush card comes on the turn, you will be happy you didn’t raise.

However, if a blank comes, your opponent is likely to bet again hoping that you will fold.

Since you didn’t raise on the flop, he will not give you credit for holding a strong hand and will often feel that one more bet may cause you to fold.

Now you can raise and get him for two double size bets when he is a 4-to-1 shot as opposed to two single size bets when he is a 2-to-1 shot.