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Heads-Up on Fifth Street

Many pots in holdem, even though they may start with a lot of players, often end up as two-player contest by the time all the cards are out.

Consequently, on the end, you sometimes must apply concepts that are totally different from those that were operative in earlier betting rounds.

This section provides some guidelines on how to proceed. First, let’s discuss those situations where you are last to act.

The first question that many players ask is when is it correct to bluff? The answer is that if your hand probably can’t win by checking, and the odds you are getting from the pot compared to the chance your opponent will call are favorable, then a bluff will be profitable.

This concept was addressed in an earlier section, so we won’t go into detail again. But a lot depends on whether you have been the bettor or the caller. If you have been calling all the way, only a significant card that appears to help you but does not, such as a flush card on fifth poker street, may make a bluff correct.

If, on the other hand, you have been betting all the way, you might try a bluff on the end regardless of the last card. Also, as has been emphasized in the text, remember to consider whether your opponent is capable of folding a decent hand.

One mistake that inexperienced players make is to bet when all the cards are out, simply because they think they have the best hand. The trouble with this play is that while you may have the best hand.

The trouble with this play is that while you may have the best hand the majority of the time, your bet may still be a loser.

That is, when you are called, your bet will lose the majority of the time – even though you expect to have the winning hand in a showdown.

In fact, if your opponent has already checked, you should think you have the best hand at least 55 percent of the time that you are called for your bet to be correct ( 51 percent is not good enough because of the possibility that you will be check-raised ).

Here are a couple of examples. First, suppose you have and are against one opponent. The flop comes queen high, with or without two suited cards.

If two blanks hit and the action has not been too heavy, you should bet on the flop turn river.

It is very likely that a lesser hand will call you. As a second example, suppose everything is the same as before except that the river card pairs the queen.
If it is checked to you.

A bet is now more dangerous but probably still correct. But if the last queen makes three of the suit, two of which flopped, then a bet would be wrong, even though you still have a reasonable chance to win the pot.

A bet in this situation is wrong not only because you are less likely to win, but also because you are less likely to be called by a worse hand.Specifically, if the board on fifth street is you normally should not bet.

Although you still may have the best hand, if you are called, it is unlikely that your hand is good. (If your opponent has come out betting, you should only if your chances compare favorably with the pot odds. This is often a function of knowing your opponent well and having lots of playing experience.)

now here is an example of when a call is almost always correct. Suppose you have top pair, you have been betting all the way after your opponent has checked to you on each round, and the lowest card on board pairs on the river. Suddenly, to your surprise, your opponent bets.

The question you must ask yourself is this: What could your opponent have been calling with? Is bottom pair a likely candidate?

If it is reasonably possible that your opponent has bottom pair, why wouldn’t he try to check-raise you on the end when this seemingly innocent card hit?

Notice that there is clearly enough doubt in this situation that when the size of the bet is compared to the size of the pot, a call is usually the correct play poker against all but the most predictable opponents.

When you are planning to raise, you usually need to be about a 2-to-1 favorite to have the best hand on the end (except for bluff-raises) because of the possibility that you may be reraised and the fact that you might not get called unless you are beat.

A raise is generally correct when you think you will have the best hand 55 percent of the time that your raise is called. (The two statements above are not contradictory. Do you see why?

However, there is an interesting exception to this rule. If you think that your opponent probably has the same hand as you and you believe that your raise will sometimes make him fold, then you should raise every time.

If he does have the same hand, this raise may win you half the pot. Even if he occasionally beats you out of that extra bet, this raise can still be worth it as long as he sometimes folds when his hand is the same as yours.

When you are first to act, you should always keep in mind what options you have in heads-up, last round holdem situations. These options are:

1. To bet.
2. To check with the intention of folding.
3. To check with the intention of calling.
4. To check with the intention of raising.

When you have a good hand, whether to check-raise or come right out betting depends on three probabilities. They are:

1. The chance that you will be called if you bet, assuming that you won’t be raised.
2. The chance that your opponent will bet if you check, but will not call your raise.
3. The chance that he will bet and then call your raise.

Going for a check-raise becomes the correct strategy tips if the second probability added to twice the third probability exceeds the first probability.